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SPC Day 1 Outlook Text Only
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Forecast DiscussionSPC AC 031951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST WED DEC 03 2008 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ....ARKLATEX INTO UPR TX/SWRN LA CST... 19Z CDFNT FROM SE MO-NW AR-SE OK-TX HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SEWD TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODIFIED GULFMEX MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD...MARKED BY THE INCREASE IN SHALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE UPR TX CST. AFTN CONVECTION SHOULD BE CAPPED BY A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE H85. POS-TILT UPR IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE TX HIPLNS WILL TRANSLATE TO E TX BY MID-EVENING...WITH STRONG UVV ACCOMPANYING THE CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND UPR TX CSTL REGION. RAPIDLY COOLING CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THE ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT SHOULD INITIATE DEEPER CONVECTION/TSTMS AFT 22-23Z FROM SW AR/NW LA INTO E TX /MUCAPES 500-750 J PER KG/. UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BECOME QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING CDFNT WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRE-FRONTAL SFC-BASED STORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 45 KTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LRG HAIL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL INTERFACE MAY GIVE A LOCAL DMGG WIND GUST AS WELL. ISOLD SVR THREATS SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT AS THE EVOLVING LINE OF STORMS BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS. ..RACY.. 12/03/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z